Who Knew that Would Work

​This week we examine two more influences on free will.
The Dead Sea scrolls were found in caves northwest of the Dead Sea near Qumran between 1947 and 1956. The first ones were discovered by a young shepherd after he threw a rock into a cave and heard something shatter. Those scrolls lay undisturbed for almost 2000 years but, after the first discovery, ten more caves containing scrolls were found within nine years.
   While no one knew the scrolls existed, no one chose to look for them. After the first discovery, people did choose to look. Finding probably all there are within a decade, archaeologists gradually began seeking more fruitful ventures. Now, sixty-odd years after the last discovery, looking for scrolls is more of a hobby than a serious endeavour.
   We find two conditions for free will in this story:

1. Awareness of options. Most choices may be viewed as transactions. Once an objective is identified, the cost in effort and resources will be estimated and balanced against the desirability of the goal. We must have some idea of both cost and benefit. Nothing can be desired before it is conceived and nothing will be desired if the expected outlays outweigh the anticipated return. Most exchanges involve interaction with others. Openness and honesty are important to a well-performing society. Expectations and offerings should conform to accepted standards. Any deviations from the norm ought to be clearly described. It is all too common, these days, for a company to produce to bare minimum standards in effort to increase profits or gain cost-competitive advantage. These short-sighted goals lead to hidden costs; to the consumer, to society in general, and to our environment; by reducing effectiveness and durability. An even worse obstacle to free will is deliberate misrepresentation.
2. Hope of success. People will not choose what they believe to be impossible. Willingness to pursue a goal is proportional to the perceived probability of success times the expected gain. The story of the donkey, the carrot, and the stick illustrates two forms of motivation, increase the reward for success or increase the pain of failure. Neither the sweetest carrot nor the stoutest stick, however, will induce the donkey to attempt a leap across the Grand Canyon. There is an interesting parallel to this story in society. Justice dictates that we sustain those who can’t provide for themselves; prudence regulates degree. Deliberations to determine who we assist and how much we offer are confounded by those who won’t provide for themselves. The carrot that entices these people to offer their due contribution is no longer their full wages; it is now only the difference between their earnings and what they can extract from social assistance. The stick is the legal penalty for falsely claiming benefits, a stick that is not wielded unless they are caught and convicted. An obvious cost arising from this is the benefits society pays to undeserving cheats. Another cost is a reduction in benefits to the deserving; fully awarding them what is warranted would encourage more people to cheat. A more hidden cost is the disincentive for some to fully participate in society. Many people who fall near the boundaries actually receive less for doing what they are able and willing to do than they receive for doing nothing.

                                                                                                 God bless.

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